New analysis warns that the looming depletion of the Old\u2011Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund would slash benefits for millions of households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) projects that couples with two lifetime earners who retire in January\u202f2033 would collect roughly $18,100 less per year than today\u2014about a 24\u202f% haircut. The culprit is the expected exhaustion of the OASI trust fund in late\u202f2032, when payroll\u2011tax inflows will cover only part of promised checks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Payroll taxes flowing into OASI no longer keep pace with the swelling retiree population, and the reserve account is on track to run dry in just over seven years. Once the balance hits zero, current law forces the Social Security Administration to pay benefits only with incoming revenue. That means every recipient\u2014whether a recent claimant or a centenarian\u2014would see roughly one\u2011quarter of each monthly payment vanish overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Average annual losses range from $11,000 to $24,000 depending on income, work history and marriage status. Need a quick snapshot of the hit? Check the figures below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n *Nominal dollars; CRFB 2025 projection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although smaller in dollars, the trim would bite deeper into a modest household\u2019s budget. Nearly 67\u202fmillion Americans now rely on Social Security, and surveys show the vast majority count it as a pillar of retirement income. So, what does this mean for your own nest egg?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Congress has options, yet none are painless. The CRFB lists several levers:<\/p>\n\n\n\nHousehold type<\/th> Estimated annual cut*<\/th> Share of current benefit<\/th><\/tr><\/thead> Two\u2011earner middle\u2011income couple<\/td> $18,100<\/td> \u201324\u202f%<\/td><\/tr> Single\u2011earner couple<\/td> $13,600<\/td> \u201324\u202f%<\/td><\/tr> Dual\u2011earner low\u2011income couple<\/td> $11,000<\/td> \u201324\u202f%<\/td><\/tr> High\u2011income couple<\/td> $24,000<\/td> \u201324\u202f%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Lawmakers weigh tax hikes and age shifts to keep Social Security paying full benefits beyond the next decade<\/h2>\n\n\n\n