Will your next COLA really cover climbing costs? Advocates say a modest 2.5 percent boost is on the horizon, but cracks in the data‑collection system could trim that raise before it ever reaches your wallet.
Millions of retirees count on the annual cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) to keep pace with rising prices. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) now pegs the 2026 bump at 2.5 percent, up a tick from last month’s 2.4 percent estimate. Good news, right? Maybe—but only if the numbers behind the math hold up.
TSCL’s projection marks the fourth straight monthly increase in its outlook, hinting that inflation remains sticky. A 2.5 percent COLA would add roughly $48 a month to the average $1,900 retirement benefit. Yet TSCL cautions that headline figures can mislead if the underlying inflation gauge—the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI‑W)—isn’t accurate.
Advocacy group warns data gaps at bureau of labor statistics threaten accuracy
Here’s the sticking point: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has trimmed staff and cut back on the business surveys that feed the CPI‑W. “Inaccurate data could cost seniors thousands over a lifetime,” TSCL executive director Shannon Benton warns. How big a bite could that be? Even a 0.1‑point misread shaves about $24 a year off an average benefit.
What smaller survey samples mean for retirees depending on every monthly dollar
The CPI‑W relies on price checks collected July through September. Fewer surveyors mean fewer price quotes on groceries, gas, and prescriptions. When the sample shrinks, rounding errors grow. Sound far‑fetched? In 2010, 2011, and 2016 the CPI‑W missed gentle inflation upticks, leaving retirees with zero COLA for the year.
| Year | COLA increase |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.9 % |
| 2023 | 8.7 % |
| 2024 | 3.2 % |
| 2025* | 2.5 % (forecast) |
| 2026* | 2.5 % (forecast) |
As the table shows, COLA swings wildly—another reason precision matters.
Three practical steps beneficiaries can take now to protect their future income
- Track inflation yourself. Compare your bill totals from last summer to this summer.
- File for needs‑based aid early. Programs like SNAP or Medicare Savings can buffer a short COLA.
- Stay vocal. Lawmakers respond to constituent pressure; let them know accurate CPI data is non‑negotiable.
So, what’s next? Congress is weighing additional BLS funding in the upcoming budget cycle. In the meantime, retirees should monitor monthly benefit statements and be ready to appeal any discrepancies. A 2.5 percent raise sounds comforting, yet its reliability hinges on robust inflation tracking. Keep an eye on Capitol Hill—and on your grocery receipt—because every dime counts when you’re living on a fixed income.